How do Canada and US House & Mortgage Markets Differ?
In light of the activity in the United States housing, and now stock markets, clients have been asking a lot of questions about whether Canada should expect the same kind of correction in the near future. The truth is that no one knows exactly how the markets will behave, but there are significant differences between our Real Estate markets and Mortgage lending practices and those in the States.
My colleague Sam Iaquinta from Broadview Mortgage (403-246-4009) recently emailed me an article from the Globe and Mail outlining the differences between Canada and US in these areas. You can read the entire article here.
A few highlights:
• Canada’s subprime market is small (5-6 per cent of outstanding mortgages) whereas the U.S. share peaked at about three times that. As a share of originations, 20-25 per cent of new mortgages in the U.S. were subprime over the 2004-06 period. So Canada isn’t anywhere near as exposed to the products that caused most of the damage in U.S. housing markets.
• Mortgage interest is deductible against taxes in the U.S. It generally is not in Canada. That creates vastly different incentives to leverage oneself in the two markets. (investors)
• Further to this latter point, long-amortization mortgage products actually extend the Canadian credit quality cycle. Long amortization periods of over 25 years have been dominant as a share of new mortgage originations since the 40-year mortgage was introduced almost two years ago. However, there is still an overwhelming majority of Canadians who face the option of extending from the previously standard 25-year product into longer amortization products in a manner that lowers their payments in the face of shocks. Even though insured 40-year mortgages are now banned in principle, 35-year mortgages still provide this flexibility.
• Investor mortgages were among the first products to default in the U.S. ,where they account for about 9 per cent of all outstanding mortgages, similar to the U.K. (9.5 per cent) and Australia (10 per cent). In Canada, however, they are about 2-3 per cent of all outstanding mortgages. There are problems in the investor segment the world over, but the magnitude of the exposure in Canada is far less significant.
• If there is an imminent problem brewing, then it’s not showing up in terms of industry-wide mortgage delinquency patterns. Mortgages 90+ days in arrears in Canada remain at 27 basis points, which is the range around which they’ve been floating since mid-2004. By contrast, even when the country had double digit variable mortgage rates and double digit unemployment rates in the early 1990s, the peak rate of delinquency was about 65 basis points. We’re of the opinion that delinquencies will deteriorate going forward, but will be nowhere close to the U.S. experience.
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